12 aprile 2006

L'opinione internazionale

BusinessWeek segnala quale dovrebbe essere una delle priorità del nuovo Governo:

REVIVING THE ECONOMY. But Prodi's urgent first task will be attacking Italy's spiraling budget deficit, which could hit 4.5% this year and its towering national debt, which has been rising steadily for two years and is headed for 107% of gross domestic product. That means curbing government spending and raising new taxes pronto. But those are hardly popularity-enhancing moves. The task is all the more difficult with Italy's economy forecast to grow at a feeble 1.2% in 2006. ... "Priority No. 1 is bringing the budget deficit under control," agrees Tito Boeri, a professor of labor economics at Bocconi University in Milan. "A downgrade would be very serious."

Interessante, inoltre, il punto di vista di alcuni analisti politici, lì riportato:

This time around, say political analysts, Prodi is likely to bring far-left leaders into his government, giving them key ministries such as labor to co-opt them into sharing responsibility for solving Italy's economic woes. "That is the lesson Prodi learned form his previous stint as prime minister," says Fabrizio Tassinari, a professor of international relations at the University of Copenhagen and policy analyst at the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. "That would give responsibility to the coalition's most unreliable forces -- it will be a key issue giving credibility to the government."

Perché? Ecco la spiegazione:

Berlusconi, who was brought down by the far-right Northern League party in 1994, did exactly that. When he won by a large majority in 2000, he included fractious Northern League leaders and put them in key posts. That helped him preside over the first postwar Italian government to survive a full five-year term.

Un ulteriore punto:

LABOR ISSUES. The key economic reform business leaders await from Prodi is his pledge to cut taxes on labor by 5%. Economists say the move will help reduce overall costs for business, chisel away at the country's huge underground economy and spur Italy's export competitiveness.

C'è però una cosa che mi lascia perplesso e preoccupato:

Such a move, combined with a pickup in growth in Germany, Italy's largest trading partner, would help staunch Italy's decline.

Non vorrei che qui si tentasse di legittimare nuovamente un legame mani-e-piedi con gli altri Paesi europei "leader" (ora la Germania, quanto tempo prima che venga tirata in ballo la Francia?)
Ma ancora sul fronte "lavoro":

One of the biggest reform challenges facing Prodi will be injecting greater flexibility into Italy's rigid labor market.
Italy's labor market remains extremely rigid because the country lacks a comprehensive unemployment insurance system. Government payouts to laid-off workers are decided on a case-by-case basis and tend to only cover larger companies. That makes routine restructuring at the bulk of smaller companies -- which comprise 70% of the Italian economy -- nearly impossible. "It's a major obstacle to restructuring," notes labor expert Boeri.

NEW RULES. Prodi's platform also includes a plan to create a kind of "tenure track" for workers, which would help them clinch a job on a flexible contract that over time adds increasing protections for the worker. The idea is not to create a new labor contract for the disenfranchised, as France tried, but to adjust the existing contract in a way that would permit companies to hire workers on a flexible basis and compel them to grant an increasing amount of protection over time.

Non mi è assolutamente chiaro come si intenda raggiungere quest'ultimo obiettivo, e soprattutto in cosa si differenzierebbe dalla modalità attuale.

Ricapitolando, dall'articolo si evincono i seguenti punti fermi per il costituendo Governo:
1. Ridurre il deficit (nuove tasse in arrivo);
2. Ridurre le tasse sui redditi da lavoro del 5% (il "cuneo fiscale"?)

Vedremo SE ci riuscirà e A QUALE PREZZO.

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